Navigating the Final Phase of the Bull Market
Purpose of this Account will be to navigate my Portfolio publicly through the coming turbulent times.
Markets are approaching a highly complex and dangerous stage. The current advance in the S&P 500 appears strong, even explosive, as we move into what I believe may be the final phase of this cycle. While many investors expect the rally to continue without disruption, history suggests otherwise. Divergences between the market’s strength and the underlying economy are widening, and this creates the conditions for sharp reversals.
We are likely heading into a turbulent sequence: first a deflationary scare, then renewed intervention from the Federal Reserve, and eventually the onset of stagflation. This whipsaw environment will be extraordinarily difficult to navigate. The last stretch of the rally could be powerful, but it may also serve as the clearest warning yet that the cycle is nearing its end.
The challenge for investors is to stay positioned while the market is still running higher, yet remain ready to move quickly when conditions shift. That is the purpose of the portfolio updates I provide here. They are not recommendations or financial advice, but rather an opportunity to follow my framework for managing risk and identifying when the tide is turning.
This account will continue to highlight signals, divergences, and critical portfolio shifts. Updates will be provided weekly, keeping you informed as we approach what I believe will be a decisive inflection point in markets.
The chart included here underscores the bullish momentum, but also the mounting divergences beneath the surface. The combination of these factors suggests a powerful but fragile advance—one that requires vigilance and discipline.
STAY TUNED!
Henrik Zeberg
Thanks, Henrik. Will you be sending alerts if any critical events occur between the weekly updates?
Theory of the portfolio setup on rotation out of the blow off/bull run would be a very compelling post - I think the gap for retail is sophistication vs. pragmatism. Where to go vs. where we are ahead of the curve. I've watched all of the swissblock videos and sub to both the portfolio and main substack, your macro view is very interesting and has been helpful in clarifying the current market themes. However, the confusion comes from assessing where safety/opportunity exists in the fallout.